Predicting marine heatwaves: current capacity and future improvements
QUESTION
What is the current capability and capacity to predict marine heatwaves? What improvements are needed in ocean monitoring systems and modelling to improve prediction capacity?
ANSWER 1
Written response:
Australia has made significant progress in predicting marine heatwaves (MHWs), particularly through collaboration between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM). These efforts support seasonal forecasting with lead times of 3 months. The resolution of these forecasts is \~25 km, which is the resolution of the ACCESS model that simulates the future ocean. The research team provides updates on conditions each summer in a series of National Briefings, which can be seen here: https://www.frdc.com.au/climate-change#toc-climate-change-briefings . These forecasts will be publicly available from the BOM website during the 2025/26 summer. The current location of any MHWs can be seen at https://www.marineheatwaves.org/tracker.html
Improvements in subsurface monitoring will help us understand why some MHWs are long-lasting, while high resolution (to 1 km resolution) is needed to improve the relaiability of forecasts in coastal areas.
For more information – see https://research.csiro.au/cor/research-domains/climate-impacts-adaptation/marine-heatwaves/
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